Statewide Forecast Discussion:

Forecast Discussion
Oklahoma Weather Lab
Issued:  8:45 PM CDT Thu Jul 03 2008


...NOW...
Statewide temperatures at this hour were fairly comfortable. Temperatures ranged in the upper 70s to low 80s statewide. Exceptions include portions of southwestern Oklahoma where temperatures were cooler due to evaporative cooling. On that note, KFDR radar trends indicate pockets of showers and a few embedded thunderstorms beginning to diminish in intensity and coverage across portions of southern Oklahoma. These showers and thunderstorms are likely associated with the frontal system draped across the state this evening. As mentioned before, the thundershowers should slowly diminish as lack of daytime heating will suppress further convectional activity. An isolated nocturnal thundershower or two cannot be ruled out in portions of southern Oklahoma.

...FRIDAY...
A fairly tricky forecast was in store for forecasters this evening. Difficulties included PoPs/QPFs as guidance products offered a variety of solutions. For now, forecasters have chosen a combination of the ETA and MEX guidance product solution, and distributed PoPs  throughout most of the state. PoPs were kept low given the scattered nature of the thundershower activity. The NGM appears to have the best handle on the current scenario as it suggest a higher likelihood of rain in southern and eastern portions of the state. Low CAPE values and impressive CIN values were also noted on latest WRF model run, and it appears that most short range model members did a decent job with the spotty shower activity progged for Friday. One area that does appear to have a greater threat for a few isolated strong to severe storms was eastern Oklahoma. The WRF model suggest MUCAPE values on the order of 2000 to 2500 J/KG. With thunderstorms that do develop on Friday, expect brief heavy downpours and frequent lightning. Finally, the frontal system will become quasi-stationary before moving out late Friday/early Saturday. As with Thursday evening, forecasters believe that thunderstorms will quickly diminish after sunset.

...SATURDAY-MONDAY...
Mostly clear skies should dominate the weekend as NAM model runs does a good job with its placement of the area of high pressure over the region. In response to the sinking air, forecasters were prompted to forecast high temperatures in the mid and in some cases upper 90s. Rain chances appear very minimum and didn't show up on any of the medium range model members. Long range GFS model appears to pick up the next storm system moving in late Monday into early Tuesday. The model suggest cooler temperatures and the next chance of rain for the state.

...From the forecasters here at OWL have a safe and enjoyable Independence Day Holiday.... 

Forecasters:
BAIN DARLING