Statewide Forecast Discussion:


Issued: 08:18 PM CST (02:18Z), Tuesday, November 24, 2020.

...SYNOPSIS...
It is storming in the eastern half of the state right now. Once those storms pass, the weather will calm down!

...SHORT TERM...
As of 02 UTC, radar shows several convective line segments generally located near US-75. These segments are moving eastward and will continue to impact the rest of the state over the next couple of hours. Several severe thunderstorm warnings are currently in effect for this activity. RAP sounding east of TSA right now suggests a stable boundary layer, with MUCAPE in excess of 1,000 J/kg aloft and a 55-knot LLJ. The stable boundary layer suggests that the damaging wind threat remains mitigated but nonzero given the strength of the LLJ. Marginally severe hail is also possible with this activity. Further south, the RAP suggests a less stable boundary layer with more than sufficient low-level shear for mesocyclones. It is uncertain whether any storm north of the Red River becomes surface-based, but given an ongoing tornado warning near Denton it seems prudent to message the possibility of QLCS circulations in southeast Oklahoma this evening.


Cold-air advection is ongoing to the west of the cold frontal convection. By morning, lows should drip to the 30s in the northwest and low 40s in the southeast. 

...LONG TERM...
Following the passage of the cyclone currently impacting our weather, a weak surface ridge is progged to develop tomorrow. This should allow for clear conditions and downsloping winds west of I-35, warming highs back into the 50s and 60s. The eastern half of the state will remain cooler. Height falls build back in Thursday, which should lead to the develop of a lee trough and possibly help push another frontal boundary through the state. A compact shortwave trough looks to impact us this coming weekend, but it is too early to state any impacts definitively.

Student Forecaster: MEISTER, PARDUN, TALKINGTON, ILLENDEN

Short Term Norman Forecast Discussion:


Issued: 08:18 PM CST (02:18Z), Tuesday, November 24, 2020.

...CURRENT CONDITIONS... 
It is currently 54 degrees with breezy winds out of the northwest.

...VALID THROUGH 12Z (NEXT 10-12 HOURS)...
Falling temperatures and breezy conditions following the passage of the cold front.

...HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...
NONE

Student Forecaster: MEISTER, PARDUN, TALKINGTON, ILLENDEN
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