Statewide Forecast Discussion:


Issued: 7:08 PM CST (01:08Z), Thursday, January 21, 2021.

...SYNOPSIS...
An active pattern persists with at least some chances of precip somewhere in the forecast area every day through the forecast period. Light rain showers to the south early in the week will transition to a chance for marginal severe weather along with possible light wintery precip in the north. Temperatures will be a bit of a rollercoaster this week as southerly flow ahead of a lee cyclone advects warm air north through the weekend before a cold front drops us back to about average or just below through next week.

...SHORT TERM...
Tonight expect areas of fog again, some dense, with possible drizzle in some areas. Fog and stratus clouds should fill in from east to west overnight. The fog should burn off pretty quick in the morning, but clouds are expected to linger through much of the day across roughly the southern half of the forecast area. There is high uncertainty on exactly where the line between persistent clouds and clear skies will fall tomorrow, so high temps across central Oklahoma are pretty low confidence at this point. Expect lows in the upper 20s north to mid 40s south where humidity is higher and highs in the 40s to low 50s.


...LONG TERM...
Into the weekend, lee cyclocgenesis is expected to occur with a trough swinging down from the pacific northwest. As this cyclone strengthens, moist southerly flow will strengthen and this combined with the approaching cold front could lead to some severe weather across far south Oklahoma into north Texas on Sunday. Instability will be elevated for this time of year (up to 800-1000J/Kg CAPE), but subsidence aloft may temper organized severe weather chances. Well above average temps in the 60s and bulk shear on the order of 80kts will help boost any storms that do get together, with hail being the main threat.

After the front crashes through, there is a slight chance for some wintry precip across the north, but recent model trends are suggesting drier air less conducive for dendrite growth, so little to no impacts are expected. There remains a slight chance for mostly rain showers with some snow possibly mixing in north across much of the state through Wednesday, but this activity should remain scattered and we don't expect any significant rain amounts. Temperatures will remain average or just below through the period after Sunday, with lows in the upper 20s to 30s and highs in the 40s to mid 50s.

Student Forecaster: ALLEN

Short Term Norman Forecast Discussion:


Issued: 7:13 PM CST (01:13Z), Thursday, January 21, 2021

...CURRENT CONDITIONS...
It's currently 47 degrees with a dew point at 42 with mostly cloudy skies. Winds are light from the east.

...VALID THROUGH 12Z...
Clouds will persist tonight with areas of fog and drizzle again forming from west to east through sunrise.

...HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...
Some areas of fog may be dense overnight, with visibilities dropping below 1/4 mile at times.

Student Forecaster: ALLEN
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